What's going to happen next?

What’s going to happen next?

The next big event in the unfolding crisis will be the collapse of the commercial real estate market. Think about it. Huge retailers have gone belly up and who knows how many more will be going to the wall. Starbucks, Macy’s, Home Depot, Walmart?? Who knows? At the very least, they will begin to rationalise their retail outlets and start cutting costs wherever they can. So who is going to rent all that available retail space???

Consider all the collapsed and merged banks and financial institutions: Bear Stearns, Merrill Lynch, Lehman brothers, Lloyds TSB with HBOS in the UK……the list goes on. Who will rent all the commercial office space that these ravaged banks leave behind? The answer is no one.

The consequences must be a huge fall in the commercial real estate market. Remember too that there are huge support industries that are tied up in this too: advertising, marketing, suppliers…..

Did you know that governments keep two sets of books when it comes to unemployment figures? There is one that they publicly give out to make the figure seem lower BUT it does not include the unemployed who are so discouraged that they have given up looking for another job, and it also excludes part-time workers. So for every public figure you hear about, try doubling it to get a more realistic picture.

There will be a tax revolt, especially in the US. Let’s face it, how can governments think about putting taxes up while people are losing everything: having their homes taken away from them, losing their jobs, their pensions?? When people are desperate and fearful and they feel they have nothing left to lose, they revolt. So expect revolutionary activity to take place around the globe.

Where are the future growth areas? In my view there are three huge possibilities:
- Health jobs. This will be a growth industry, particularly in elder care.
- Conservation engineers. People who work out ways of saving and making money will be part of a huge growth economy
- Alternative energies – there are certainly job opportunities in this area.