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For regular updates on global financial and economic events. What you as an ordinary person and do to protect yourself, your family and your assets.

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Saturday, January 31, 2009

The Meltdown of 2009

This is a GLOBAL MELTDOWN!!! All over the world, governments are doing the same thing - that is printing more and more money and planning to spend their way out of the crisis. Massive stimulus programmes are being instigated, the toxic debts of the financial institutions are being swept up by the governments - they are acting as though there are no consequences to this type of behaviour. They are using 1930's methodologies to tackle 21st century problems. It's ridiculous. The burden will ultimately fall on the taxpayers.

Just today, Gordon Brown announced that this crisis is unprecedented and we could not look back at history for any answers. Great. So what are they doing? Just repeating history without any thought about the effect they are having on peoples' lives for the future.

Here's the way I see it. We started out with the sub-prime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the subsequent collapse of many banks and financial institutions. Since then, some huge retailers have gone bust: Sharper Image, Linens and More, Circuit City to name but a few. This is just the start. Yesterday over 75,000 job losses were announced. In one day! What you will be seeing will be an enormous collapse of the commercial real estate sector. This will be much bigger than the sub-prime crisis. Imagine all the empty buildings from the companies who are no longer in business. This is going to be huge.

The US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, is pretending that they are saving the banks in the name of national interest. They cannot save the banks - they are pouring all the toxic assets onto the taxpayers. The ship is sinking but lifeboats are only there for the wealthy. Every person is going to be much poorer in order to keep on enriching the elite few at the top. How can they justify taking over $18bn in bonuses during 2008 when leading so many financial institutions into bankruptcy??? It's shocking. And this is only the surface. We are not even seeing 10% of the extent of the greed, dishonesty and unethical behaviour. This is merely the beginning. Do you think that Bernard Madoff is the only one??? No way, he is one of many that have been found out so far.

Already we are seeing the signs of unrest around the world: a million people striking in France this week, riots and demonstrations in Greece, Latvia, Russia, Iceland...Already in the US, they are training the military for riot control. The Arizona police force is training the police for riots and economic calamity.

Be assured that draconian measures will be taken by governments around the world. It could be a bank holiday, it could be confiscating gold, it could be anything - probably something totally unexpected - but it will definitely be something dramatic that will hurt the everyday person and again the rich will benefit.

There will be bigger government, more intrusion, more spying. Crime will increase rapidly and there will be a growing underclass.

It is important to prepare for the worst: at least have a couple of weeks of water and food stored away, some gold, some weapons if you think it necessary as well.

Remember the banks might just close for a while - so make sure you have some cash on hand.

It doesn't cost anything to take protective measures.

Again, I tell you, I am not into doom and gloom, but I felt I had to write this blog urgently right now so that as many of you as possible can make preparations to protect yourselves.

For the future, it is going to take creative innovation: possibly in the field of alternative energy, medical breakthroughs, or climate change solutions.

First protect yourself and your family, and in future blogs I will discuss how the future can really be brighter for us all.

Take care.

Saturday, January 24, 2009

More Turmoil Ahead in the Financial Markets

2009 has started with a bang and even on inauguration day, the stock markets plummeted.

In my view, we are at the very beginning of the crisis. Once there is another wave of corporate defaults, there will be another phase of the banking crisis. Governments are trying to maintain the status quo with very little success. Throwing "helicopters of money" at the problem (Bernanke) is not solving the issues. Central banks are not ruled by the same laws as ordinary citizens and they do not have to report their figures or information to anyone. Shocking isn't it?

Well, here's what you can expect:
more waves of bank failures
more retail stores going bankrupt
more redundancies and job losses
further house price falls
increases in property taxes even with falling house prices

However, here's the flip side:
there is the opportunity for new money systems to emerge from this mess
a surge in complementary currencies and new ways for barter and exchange of goods and services
more internet types of exchanges
less of a stranglehold with few huge banks, but a plethora of different financial bodies being formed
new innovative ways of exchange
money becoming our master, rather than the vast majority being slaves to it
more transparency and honesty in the system as a whole
a NEW WORLD CURRENCY - you read it here remember!
I am not sure how this will come together, but there will be a new currency - it could maybe incorporate the USD, some EURO currency and an ASIAN mix of currencies. It is not clear yet, but there will be a whole new world as far as money is concerned.

Look closely at the Transition Towns movement - started in the UK - and spreading rapidly around the globe. This is in response to the situation of Peak Oil and Climate Change. It brings together the local community and can also involve the issuing of a local currency.

We have exciting times ahead.
I'll be back with more soon!

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Financial Markets for 2009

It's like the calm before the storm. Nothing terrible has happened on the financial markets over the Holiday Season. The Dow Jones has continued to rally and is now over 9000 points. There have been no other major catastrophes in the banking system since the Bernard Madoff fraud that have hit the news. All eyes are on the inauguration of Barack Obama on January 20th.

So what are the possible outcomes?

Firstly, I think that more disruptions, panics, insolvencies and revelations of huge fraudulent schemes will occur from about March 2009 onwards. Now is not the time to sit on your laurels, but to really think about what your options are. Have you protected your cash best you can? If you have savings, have you spread it around different banks? Have you set aside at least six months cash to live on should the banking establishments take a "holiday" for a while? It's much better to be prepared and not need it, than to be caught out.

If you have some money and want to be sure of its safety then you have two possible options:
- invest in US Treasury Bills
- invest in gold and silver coins and make sure you take delivery of them. Do not leave them in a bank or other financial institution.

There are not many other options for keeping your money safe.

Do not take out any debt if you can possibly help it.

Start thinking locally. What can you do to sustain yourself as far as food, energy and supplies are concerned? Can you get together with like-minded people in your community? Take a look at the Transition Towns movement which is taking hold in many countries around the world. This is about creating a local currency where goods and services are exchanged in your own currency. For example, a local Farmers Market, or creating a community vegetable garden are ways of becoming self-sufficient in your own backyard. This can be an exciting time as well as a frightening one.

It is finding the balance between the two: preparing yourself for the worst outcomes - no different than taking out insurance - no one expects their house to be flooded or to have a fire, but if you have insurance at least you are covered in the unlikely eventuality. This situation is no different. Protect yourself as best you can. Make sure you have a survival kit and have stored some food and water at the very minimum.

Then start to explore ways of getting involved in your local community. This will be one of the keys to survival when the crisis really hits home.

Wishing you all the best of luck!

Thursday, December 18, 2008

There is Good News Ahead

Hello again
It's coming up to the holiday season and there's a lot of uncertainty in the air. Am I going to lose my job? Where should I keep my money? What's going to happen in the markets? Will the price of food keep on going up? Will this be a long and deep recession and how can I protect myself?

These are many of the questions that people are asking themselves right now. Over the holiday period, it is a good time to take stock of your situation. Even if your work or income is not endangered by the crisis, take a long hard look at your life. Are you doing what you really enjoy doing? If not, what are you passionate about? Look at your interests and your aptitudes. You may be interested in a field but not have the aptitude for it, or you may have the aptitude but not the interest. The key to success is finding something for which you have both the aptitude and the interest, but also feel passionate about.

Give yourself small goals at first - this will give you confidence to carry on to your bigger goals. Set yourself targets that only only just outside your comfort zone - don't make it too difficult or you will get disheartened and you won't carry on. For example, this year, I have written two books and I have never written a book before. If I had set myself the goal of writing two books, I probably would never have got started. However, I started out with a goal to write just three pages a day. Once I had momentum, I was easily able to extend that goal.

Take a bit of time out to meditate, to visualise and to get in touch with that which really excites you this holiday season.

Even during the very worst times of the last Great Depression in the 1930's there were still only 27% unemployed. That meant that 73% of the population still had work. I am not suggesting that it will get so bad, but remember, there were many people who thrived during the Depression. It was just a case of thinking differently, finding new opportunities and thinking outside the box.

For example, in Mumbai, there is a cafe called The Leopold,where eight people were killed a couple of weeks ago in the terrorist attacks, which is now packed out with customers. The cafe has become a shrine of defiance against terrorism. Tourists come to buy T-shirts emblazoned with the cafe's logo. Sales are up five times what they were before the attack.

We are all exposed to situations in life some of which we like and others which are most unpleasant. However, it is our attitude and reactions to them that will shape our destiny. In this global crisis, we can focus on all the alarming issues and terrible outcomes, but we can also look at it as an opportunity to come together and to start to create the kind of world we want to see. No longer can we trust our governments and many of our financial institutions - more and more fraudulent activities are being unearthed around the world - so it is up to each individual to take the bull by the horns and to create the kind of life you want for yourself, and also to come together with like-minded people.

It's certainly a time to reach out more - to become more independent, self-sufficient and to help one another.

This can be a very exciting time to be alive - so I hope that I have given you some things to think about over the festive season.

Wishing you all a very happy, healthy and peaceful New Year.



Friday, November 28, 2008

The Global Financial Crisis - new events unfolding

Two years ago, Citigroup was America's largest bank. Last week, the government moved to guarantee close to $300 billion in troubled assets. But Citigroup is not the only crisis that must be dealt with - there are the three huge automakers: GM, Chrysler and Ford who are also at the Fed's begging bowl.

This is only the beginning. Factor in the terrorist attacks going on right now in Mumbai, demonstrations throughout Thailand, fighting in Afghanistan, earthquakes, floods and all kinds of natural distasters and you can see that the world faces extremely uncertain and worrying times. 2009 will be one of titanic shocks and changes to the world order culminating possibly in the demise of the US dollar.

What could this mean for the everyday person?

I think that you should seriously consider the possibility of a shutdown of the global banking system. I hope this will not happen, but it is best to be aware that it is a distinct possibility.

Let's examine my reasons for this statement:

- despite the US government's massive Citigroup bailout, it is going to be very difficult for the global banking system to survive the shock to confidence for very long
- even if insured depositors do not withdraw their funds from the banks, uninsured institutional investors are likely to run with their money thus threatening to bring the system down
- even if you have your money in a "safe bank" with full FDIC coverage (in the US), or a government guarantee in many other countries, you could still be adversely affected.

Indeed, if everyone decided to pull out their monies at once, how could the governments avoid going bankrupt - or at the very least, how will we escape hyperinflation?

Why is a banking meltdown possible?
Here is a statement made by the Managing Director of the IMF (International Monetary Fund) on October 11th 2008:
"Intensifying solvency concerns about a number of the largest U.S.-based and European financial institutions have pushed the global financial system to the brink of systemic meltdown."

You cannot get much clearer than that for a severe warning of how serious this crisis really is.

At some point, governments around the world may have no other choice but to declare a global banking holiday - a shutdown of nearly every bank int he world, regardless of size, country, or financial condition.

What could happen in the banking holiday? In the past, there have been some financial shutdowns that eventually helped resolve the crisis. And there have been others that have made matters much worse. Often, savers are forced to leave their money on deposit, giving up a substantial portion of their interest income for many years. In other cases, the only way they can get their money back sooner is by accepting an immediate loss of principal. But no matter how it is resolved, when banks have made huge mistakes and suffered large losses, it's the multitude of savers that ultimately pay the biggest price. No one else has the money.

Many people are probably thinking:
"If the deposits are insured - why would anyone want to withdraw them?"
The reason is that most bank runs are not caused by the insured depositors - people on the street who invest their hard-earned savings into banks and financial institutions.
No, instead they are caused by the exodus of the large, uninsured institutions who are usually the first to run for cover at the earliest hint of trouble.

During the banking failures in the 1980's and 1990's, the story was similar: we rarely saw a run on the bank by individuals, rather it was the uninsured institutional investors - the banks, pension funds and ohters - that jumped ship long before most people even realised the ship was sinking.

I am telling you here and now, the ship is sinking!!!

All you savers out there, wake up and listen - because a banking holiday would hurt you the most. The first hardship is that you could be denied access to most or all of your money for an indefinite period.

What about the government agency guarantees you might ask?
Well, a large proportion of those guarantees, unfortunately would have to be suspended in order to give banking regulators the time they need to sort out the mess.

It is simply not reasonable to expect that governments will have the resources to immediately meet the demands of thousands of institutionsa nd millions of individuals if they all want their money back at roughly the same time.

They are likely to tell you that your money is still safely guaranteed, but you cannot have it right now.
Imagine how frustrating that would be! So I urge you to take at least six months living money out of the bank or financial institution and have it somewhere on hand. All banks are frightening right now and none of them can be trusted - so at least cover yourself by having six months cash on hand.

The other possibility is that by the time you do regain access to your money, you will suffer losses. The governments may offer you a couple of options. For example:
If you opt into their programme by leaving your funds on deposit at your bank for an extended period of time, earning below-market interest rates. The bank is then allowed to use the extra interest that you are forfeiting to recoup its losses over time - that is income that should have been yours.

You may be given an option to opt out of the government's programme and allowed to withdraw your funds immediately. However, you might have to accept a loss that approximately correponds to the actual losses in the bank's investment and loan portfolio.

Neither opting in nor opting out will be a good option for you.

You either suffer a loss of income or a loss of principal.

To avoid many of these risks, I recommend seriously considering the following:

1. Get some cash on hand
2. Buy some gold and silver one ounce coins
3. Buy some short-term US treasury securities (or treasury securities from your own country)

The reason I suggest treasury bonds is that even in the worst-case banking scenario, the Treasury will do whatever is necessary for you to get your money.

Watch this space for more recommendations as the crisis unfolds.

Monday, November 17, 2008

Solutions to the Crisis

So far, there seems to be little news about the G20 meeting in Washington this weekend. However, it's increasingly evident that governments cannot keep on pumping money into the system with little or no effect. There are always consequences to all actions.

We need to be thinking about new solutions. Once you have protected yourself best you can, then it's time to join in with the global movement for change. This is a time for participation from the masses and for us to start to take control of our lives. In my view, we need to move toward sustainability and community and then design a money system that takes us in that direction.

Let's look at this seriously. Information technologies increasingly allow us to attain very good economic growth without increases in employment. It is quite likely that jobs are not going to be there any more for the majority of the population. What does this mean???

This is potentially very exciting. No longer will you have to stick it out at a job that you do not enjoy, but there is the opportunity for you to be working and exchanging skills that you enjoy doing for services that you need. I would like to make a distinction between jobs and work. A job is what you do for a living. Work is what you do because you enjoy doing it. I expect that jobs will become increasingly obsolete, but there will still be an almost infinite amount of fascinating work to be done.

The way of the future could well be in creating local currencies. How would they work?

For example, in Italy you find people offering piano lessons and requesting lessons in French. Neither would pay in Euros. What's great about local currency is that when people create their own money, they do not build in a scarcity factor. They do not need to get the currency from somewhere else in order to have a means of making an exchange with a neighbour.

With all the redundancies and job losses happening round the world - today Citigroup announced it was cutting another 26,000 jobs, making the total loss so far a massive 75,000. We have to start to find other ways to create what we need. For example, there are lots of people who enjoy gardening, but who cannot make a living from it in the competitive world. If a gardener is unemployed, and I am unemployed, in the normal economy we might both starve. However, with complementary currencies, he could grow my vegetables, which I pay for in local currency earned by providing piano lessons to someone else. By using a local currency you create greater local sustainability.

One of the biggest issues that humanity is facing today is sustainability and the inequalities and breakdown in community. In many towns and cities, people do not even know their close neighbours. These issues can be addressed by creating currency systems that will enhance our communities and our sustainability.

Exciting times ahead!

Saturday, November 8, 2008

The Good News

The Spirit of Christmas
Whilst its true that the global economic crisis will affect us all in one way or another, there is another aspect to this situation that has a really positive side.
Yes, we are going to have to pull in our belts, cut back on excessive, unnecessary spending, stop taking out debts that we might not be able to repay and generally find ways to make the best use of the resources we already have.


However, where we can still improve is in the reaching out to others within our community on a regular basis. The spirit of Christmas is all about giving - about generosity of spirit. This is the time of year when people around the world do give of their time and energy to help out at the homeless shelter, play music in the rest homes to bring Christmas cheer and in countless different ways consciously attempt to bring light and love into those who most need it.

We are facing a serious economic crisis and as Napoleon Hill said: “In every crisis are the seeds of opportunity.” We now have many opportunities in which to change our world and it starts on our own doorstep. With the energy crisis, we will be forced to work together more, to create sustainable communities where our food is locally grown and not shipped in from hundreds, even thousands of miles away. This can be such a wonderful blessing, to quote Charles Dickens: this period could well be “the best of times and the worst of times.” Many are focused only on the “worst of times” and whilst it is important to be aware of what is happening and of the likely consequences and to take out adequate protection for you and your family, it is vital to see that we are coming into a whole new age.
This Christmas could be the start of something really magical - where we think about the world that we wish to create. Where we are not only doing charitable works over the Christmas period, but where we are literally creating a whole new caring, hospitable and hopeful world for ourselves and our children.

It is a time to celebrate and also to think about the world that we can now create together.
Think of a world where our old people are given free food and utilities, a world where we take care of the earth not by fighting nature with chemicals, but working with it. A world where there is more friendship and more love. We have only one world and it is for all of us. You don’t actually need that much to be happy. Think this Christmas of sharing, cooperation, solidarity and working together for a better world.


Don’t miss Barbara’s latest book coming out in a couple of weeks’ time: “Handbook for Surviving the Global Financial Crisis.” To order your copy or for further information contact:
www.financemoneybusiness.com
bg@financemoneybusiness.com